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Recent studies have indicated that the accurate simulation of debris flows depends not only on the selection of numerical models but also on the availability of precise data on the initial source location and depth. Unfortunately, it is currently difficult to obtain quantitative data on source locations and depths during field investigations or model experiments of debris flow disasters. Therefore, in this study, we propose an integrated approach for simulating the debris-flow dynamic process that includes the physically based slope initiation source estimation and the entrainment-incorporated process simulation. We treat the potential slip surfaces’ locations and depths as random variables to search for the critical surface corresponding to the minimum stability factor by Monte Carlo simulation. Using the spatial variation interval of the soil parameters, we estimate the range of possible critical slip surfaces and the interval of the initiation source volume. Moreover, we propose a wet/dry front treatment method applied to the finite difference scheme and integrate it into our entrainment-incorporated model to improve the stability and accuracy of the numerical solution over complex topography. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through a case study of the 2010 Hongchun debris flow event in Yingxiu town. The result indicates that our method is effective in simulating debris flow dynamics, including slope initiation source estimation and dynamic process simulation.

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Water, Free Full-Text

Water, Free Full-Text