Some enterprise risk managers call unexpected but predictable events gray rhinos and avoid the term black swan. As awful, disruptive and devastating as the Covid-19 pandemic has been, it’s not worthy of being called a black swan, according to more than one pundit. They include the man who made the term famous: Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” whose subtitle is “The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” Unlike a black swan event—unpredictable, with massive impact— the argument goes, the pandemic, along with some other recent examples that felt cataclysmic, was both predictable and predicted.
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